Preferred PM Theorem

In an unexpected guest post at The Poll Bludger, The Government Gazette maintains the rage:

Kevin Rudd’s prime ministerial ambitions lie in tatters today after yet another devastating opinion poll, this time from ACNielsen. For all the ignorant whingeing levelled at the government lately by out-of-touch ivory tower eggheads, loony left “web loggersâ€?, civil libertarian do-gooders, bludgers and parasites from the Aboriginal industry and poofters in g-strings at the Sydney Mardi Gras, the Coalition primary vote has held firm on 39 per cent. This is profoundly significant because, as anyone who really understands opinion polls can tell you, only four of the last nine changes of government occurred after ruling party support remained steady in the last month before the election whose name began with a J.

What do you think?

NB: The post at The Poll Bludger isn’t really by Chris Mitchell – it’s satire. I’d have thought that was obvious, but it appears it needs spelling out.

Nielsen results here. Michelle Grattan observes:

This is the 50th national poll since Mr Rudd wrested the leadership from Mr Beazley in December. None of these polls has had the Coalition in front. When ACNielsen and the other main polls (Newspoll, Galaxy and Morgan) are put together, since June 1 (13 polls, nearly 14,000 interviews) Labor is ahead 57 to 43 per cent on a two-party basis. The primary votes from this weighted average are ALP 48 and the Coalition 39 per cent.

Don’t miss the analysis at Possums Pollytics.

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Posted in Federal Elections, media, Polls
37 comments on “Preferred PM Theorem
  1. John Hart says:

    Have you seen the “Government Gazette” today with its new layout? It’s like its political comment — a real dog’s breakfast! There also seems to be less opportunity to comment. I wonder why!

  2. Spiros says:

    “loony left web loggers”

    Left loggers? An oxymoron, surely.

  3. SRK says:

    That is someone posing as Chris Mitchell, taking the piss.


  4. Shammrock O'Toole says:


  5. SRK says:

    Apologies for being dense.

  6. steve says:

    The GG blog writers seems to be minus Phillip Adams now.

  7. Guido says:

    It looks like Christ Mitchell has started to influence mumble as well! 😉

    July 16 More excellent news for Howard: 58 to 42

    ACNielsen in SMH. However, look at this page in The Age: if you divide the 62% who want troops home by the 22% who say housing affordability has declined because etc, you get almost exactly three. This, of course, was the 1996 height difference in inches between John Howard and Paul Keating.

    Those who really understand opinion polls would realise that this indicates Howard is likely to make a come-back, based on the fact that Kevin Rudd and Howard are of a similar height and the PM’s birthday is approaching.

    Only mad ultra left-wing Howard-haters would disagree with this analysis, surely.


  8. steve says:

    Their blog roll is here.

  9. Andyc says:

    Steve: “Their blog roll is here.”

    Thanks. I look forward to using it next time I go to the blog.

    But seriously: what Shammrock said. Just how deep into denial is it possible for the GG to sink? How have they got the hide to call anyone else “out of touch”?

    Nevertheless: I love the image of loony lefty loggers chainsawing down Teh Intertubes…

  10. luckyPhil says:

    Peter Brent has a similar interpretation.

  11. Noocat says:

    The new site for the Government Gazette is a shambles. It’s hard to find where to focus, so many bits and pieces everywhere. And the blogs/opinions stuff has been made much more conspicuous, although right now, links to blogs aren’t even working.

    They really need a new editor over there.

  12. Christine Keeler says:

    Well given Media Watch’s interest in the interwebs this year, hopefully they’ll run with this entertaining saga tonight.

    I’ll be pretty disappointed if they don’t.

    On the poll results, not all is lost. I understand General Wenke and the Cabinet War Room, ably assisted by defence supremo Lord Nelson, are about to launch a devestating counter-attack against the rampaging hordes of Labor sympathisers streaming across the borders.

  13. steve says:

    Has Captain Brough been invited?

  14. steve says:

    Seems the rush to embrace Pearson was a bit premature.

  15. MorningDude says:

    steve on 16 July 2007 at 1:05 pm

    Has Captain Brough been invited?

    Maybe not, but he has been invited by Joanna Gash to look at the Aboriginal community at Wreck Bay, which is not even in her electorate being a part of Canberra. She has been screaming on ABC radio for anyone who would listen that this community should get the same treatment as the NT because senior aboriginal women have secretly told her of major problems and abuse in the community and have been asking for her urgent help for a while now.

    Being all secret Joanna won’t give any details and won’t be questioned on matter, only that she want immediate action admitting that she has been reticent in not doing anything previously, but is now making up for it.

    And Abbot scratches his head and wonders why his party that supposedly is so good, is so much on the nose with the voting public.

  16. Lefty E says:

    On the poll results, not all is lost. I understand General Wenke and the Cabinet War Room, ably assisted by defence supremo Lord Nelson, are about to launch a devestating counter-attack against the rampaging hordes of Labor sympathisers streaming across the borders.

    Absolutely, CK, Wenck kommt sofort, leading an invincible rearguard battalion of “PM rating” Panzers into the onrushing Ruddian hordes at Prenzlauer Berg.

    For further information, contact Dennis Al-Sahafahan, here

  17. Trevski says:

    I’ve sent a complaint email to the ABC about the shocking preponderance of News Ltd. hacks ( and especially Govt.Gazette shills)who appear on ‘Insiders’. Apart from the fact that Paul Kelly has a permanent tenure, last Sunday had the horrifyingly Howardian Glenn Milne, and the generally ineffectual George Megalogenis, with only Fran Kelly prepared to deviate from the norm of anti-Rudd bias. If they put on anyone else ,it’s usually the manic Piers Akerman, Malcolm Farr, or worse still Andrew Bolt. (It’s lucky for us he’s on holiday). Should you seek to complain also, use the above link and follow the instructions.

  18. Mark says:

    Trevski, just paste in the link, please. If you try to use html, it comes out scrambled.

  19. Sid Marris - The Australian says:

    The entry from Chris Mitchell is a fake.

    It would be reasonable to expect that it be removed or marked clearly as a fake.

    Sid Marris
    The Australian

  20. Hilker says:

    I love the image of loony lefty loggers chainsawing down The Intertubes…

    Well, I have just serviced mine and sharpened the sawing bit. I was going to prune a few pesky fence loving trees, but I am prepared to go those dirty capitalist fascist Big Brother Intertubey thingies instead. Just tell me where to find them.

    Oh look, there’s one, going into the back of my computer! Die you evil propaganda spread…

    Normal service will be resumed as soon as Hilker’s medication and re-education program kicks in.

  21. Pritam says:


    Good call re ABC. I’ve sent one off as well.

    “I have written on this before and received a reply trotting out a bunch of bureaucratic twaddle claiming that it was not so (pro-Coalition bias). A look at the bunch of News Ltd hacks on display every Sunday on this program for as long as I can remember would dispel that lie for what it is. I am not suggesting there be bias in any other direction – simply intelligent analysis and comment based on factual evidence. I emphasise INTELLIGENT comment, not slanging off of slogans from Central Coalition Party Command. The voting public deserves to be informed and educated, not persuaded one way or another.

    And please spare the bureaucratese in response.”


  22. patrickg says:

    Man, I hope that entry from “Sid” is a fake. Is there an ip on it? Otherwise this is becoming way, way too perfect.

  23. Katz says:

    Perhaps the LP retraction should appear directly under Chris Mitchell’s retraction of his claim that Manning Clark was awarded the Order of Lenin.

  24. tooz says:

    I can guess what the strategy to come out of today’s War Room will be. An escalation of the taxpayer-funded government/Liberal Party re-election advertising onslaught. Plus an escalation of the dirty politics of smear against Rudd, Labor and “the unions”.

    When will they learn? People have come this year, after months of an unofficial campaign, to resent the dirty politics the Liberals in particular have been playing. And they can see their money going down the drain every time they see a government ad which they know is really for Liberal Party purposes.

  25. adrian says:

    It would be reasonable to expect that it be removed or marked clearly as a fake.

    I would have thought that it would be reasonable to expect someone with average intelligence to pick up the fact that it was a fake.

    Don’t know how your target audience would interpret it though.

  26. patrickg says:

    And if it’s not: get f***ed Sid.

    Have you ever heard of satire? You should have: it’s the next step along the line from farce, so I would think The Australian is about 98% there.

  27. Kim says:

    Post updated:

    NB: The post at The Poll Bludger isn’t really by Chris Mitchell – it’s satire. I’d have thought that was obvious, but it appears it needs spelling out.

  28. steve says:

    It’s the economic myth that’s stopping them from seeing the damage they are doing to themselves..

  29. Ernest Lalor da Malley says:

    I cry hoax. Patrickg is obviously a pseudo-web-logger.
    Sid Harris and the darkening ecliptic of The Australian
    should take heed of the old proverb: “Do not speak
    of secret matters in a field full of little hills”. I
    Who have lived in the shadow that each act
    Casts on the next act now emerge
    As loyal as the thistle that in session
    Puffs its full seed upon the indicative air.
    I have split the infinite. Beyond is anything.

    Ernest Lalor da Malley
    Taverner’s Hill

  30. Lefty E says:

    Well, there goes the Gazette’s ‘it was political satire’ defence.

    You mean that Dennis Al-Sahafahan stuff was like, fer real??

  31. steve says:

    Sid seems to be baiting this site and Poll Bludger to get reaction to this rubbish.

  32. Lefty E says:

    Uhoh, Ministers are “voicing support” for Howard.

    For our foreign visitors, thats essentially a vote of no confidence in an Australian political party leader.

  33. Spiros says:

    It might have been a fake Sid.

    All this angst over sampling error.

    Labor is in the mid 50s, give a take or point or two, the Coalition are in the mid 40s, give or take a point or two. It has been this way according to every opinion poll since Rudd became leader. Nothing has changed since December.

    Why is this so hard to understand?

    This is despite the budget, Rudd’s wife’s business, Gillard’s gaffes, scare stories about unions, amendments to Work Choices, catch up over climate change, intervention in the NT and terrorists in Britain with alleged links in Australia.

  34. Mercurius says:

    The fact that some people apparently couldn’t tell that The Poll Bludger’s hilarious article was satire and not real news explains rather a great deal about just why The Australian has been able to get away with things for so long.

    And their new “improved” website is, I think, a calculated f*** you to all their online readers. Nothing else can explain that camel of a layout.

    Readers, vote with your eyeballs!

  35. Trevski says:
    Sorry about the link, here it is. I’ve had at least one person on another blog send them a complaint, perhaps they’ll get the message if a few more send them a serve.

  36. Phil says:

    Stop it Sid, you’re cracking me up. Is it possible that everyone at the Oz is as simultaneously thick headed and thin skinned as you? Not to mention new media illiterate.

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