The narrowing

According to The Poll Bludger, Sky News is reporting that this week’s Newspoll shows Labor gaining 2 points on the 2PP to reach 55% and Labor’s primary vote holding steady at 48%. The Coalition are down two points to 40%.

Nothing from Dennis Shanahan yet, unless this sneak preview of his next column is an accurate leak.

In other news, the PM promises $500 000 for Orangutans and Coalition sources say their policy launch will “blow Rudd out of the water”.

Update [by MB]: Possum has a neat graph showing the glacial narrowing will deliver teh victory to the Coalition sometime in July next year.

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Posted in federal election '07
23 comments on “The narrowing
  1. mbahnisch says:

    Shanahan accentuates the positive:

    THE Coalition has taken a hit from last week’s historic interest rate rise, but John Howard remains the clear choice as the better economic manager over Kevin Rudd, according to the latest Newspoll.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22741978-601,00.html

  2. Leinad says:

    Egads. Delusion she ain’t pretty. Better economic manager is peripheral set against a rock solid Labor primary of 48% and a haemorraging Coalition primary of 40%. Congrats, Mark on having the foresight to call this way back when — the Collective and the blogosphere have been an order of magnitude more insightful and forthright in analysis than the rest (with a few execptions).

  3. CK says:

    Well it’s not going to be pretty is it? The blogs have been calling it for months, and Dennis, Milne, Ackers et al are going to look like bigger stuffed geese than they already do. I don’t think we’ll be holding our breaths for any acknowledgment, though.

    No, it will be all insurance policy fine-print get-out clauses: ‘As I cautioned back in August’, ‘as Newspoll has been indicating for months’, ‘act of God’, blah, blah, blah…

  4. mbahnisch says:

    As I was saying the other day…

    https://larvatusprodeo.wordpress.com/2007/11/09/sorry-so-sorry-but-not-apologising/

    Possum’s crunched some numbers and found no meaningful statistical relationship between the voting intention and economic management questions in Newspoll. Shanahan may not understand that means that the “Howard remains the clear choice” blah might be of some academic interest but that it is basically completely irrelevant if we’re interested in the question of what the poll might be saying about who will win the election.

    http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/11/08/the-race-against-the-cashrate-clock/

  5. mbahnisch says:

    No, it will be all insurance policy fine-print get-out clauses: ‘As I cautioned back in August’, ‘as Newspoll has been indicating for months’, ‘act of God’, blah, blah, blah…

    Won’t have a lot of credibility, though, CK.

    Hard to know what’s going on in Shanahan’s head. Is it some continuing belief that they have “influence” or is it just delusional? It’s difficult to see how they’re going to be able to dig themselves out of this hole after Howard’s gone. There’s not much mileage, surely, in being a cheersquad for a defeated opposition in disarray and no one really cares about that culture wars crap – I mean look at Quadrant’s readership!

  6. Katz says:

    Spotto the difference!

    1. “Basically, this will cover all those things that are important to parents,” a source told The Age. “It will blow Rudd out of the water.”

    2. However, Finance Minister Nick Minchin said the Government’s spending promises would be “modest and conservative”.

    I remember the good ol’ days when Ratty’s crew used to be capable of telling consistent lies.

    So it’s going to be a modest blow job is it?

    So sad.

  7. Spiros says:

    Shanahan is like Monty Python’s black knight. “It’s only a flesh wound”.

    What we seeing is the slow-mo disintegration of a horrid regime, like Ceasescu’s Romania.

  8. gandhi says:

    Sorry, forgot the .

  9. Sir Henry says:

    The Daily Telecrap has largely hidden its beat up of this morning’s so-called poll (extremely small sample to make it credible and no information on methodology) in which it is revealed that Bennelong is evenly split between La McKew and Rattus Howardicus. More revealing and fascinating is Telecrap’s self-selecting online poll also published this morning – also statistically and methodologically suspect, as it is self-selecting and open to abuse. The question is can Howard hang on in Bennelong? Here are the results, 365 respondents, thus far 8.50am Monday; No: 64%, Yes: 26%, Too close to call, don’t know: 8%. The Yes question has a subhead “…he’ll just scrape in”. The fascinating stat here is that only 8% take any note of the Tele’s poll that it is too close to call.

  10. Ambigulous says:

    There are a number of strategems which may be employed by the Punditariat:
    * last minute (completely mysterious, could-never-have-picked-this-one) swing to Labor
    * not picked up by our polling which ceased at midnight on the Thursday prior to polling day
    * strong local issues
    * the “Costello Solution” was not given credibility in Voterland [alt: was given too much credibility]
    * Julia’s prettier than Joe H
    * Kevin’s prettier than Tony A
    * Dolly’s prettier than them all, but also adjudged a teensy weensy bit of a silly-billy
    * Mr Rudd simply lied his way into office
    * WorkChoices seems to have been a dud in the Western suburbs, even though all econometricians agree that it was a fine, fine policy

    and finally, to paraphrase Bertolt Brecht’s bitter words on the East German govt after food riots (1953?)… “we will have to elect a new People!”

  11. Paul Burns says:

    There was a poll somewhere last week – I can’t recall where in the sludge of electoral material I’ve been immersing myself in – that 70% of voters in the kay marginals were being primarily influenced by the various parties’ policies on climate change. On this, of course, the Greens, ALP, Dems (I think)and Socialist Alliance are way ahead with the electorate. Hell, Malcolm didn’t even turn up for the Walk agsainst Warming. (Neither did I but as far as I know we didn’t have one in Armidale.)
    Maybe the Libs are following their usual policy on global warming. Closing their eyes and hoping it will go away.

  12. silkworm says:

    Hrmph. I stayed up till 3.30 this morning trying to keep up with the comments on Poll Bludger, but it was just impossible with over 1000 comments on one thread. Some interesting tidbits did emegre however – these were the Liberal polling in Bennelong which showed that Howard’s pledge to quit in 18 months has pissed off the voters there, and will push Maxine over the line. The other was a link to a past speech by Latham on the floor of the house in which he ripped into Piers Akerman. Latham is now a hero in my eyes.

    My first impression when I saw that 55-45 2PP Newspoll was that, since Newspoll is the most conservative poll, the real situation could be something like 57-43. Morgan’s 62-38 got little following. The latest Nielsen was 56-44. That seems to be the most reliable.

    It should be interesting to watch Howard fumble his way through his campaign launch. I’m not interested in any way in his promises, only in his body language. Howard is a spastic.

  13. Ambigulous says:

    Mr vShanahan has outdid hisself today. Front page, 2nd column. “But even after the rate rise and some slippage in support Mr Howard is the clear choice of voters on economic management over Mr Rudd with a lead of 14 points. Before the rate rise Mr Howard had 51 per cent, compared with Mr Rudd’s 32 per cent. Last weekend suppoort for Mr Howrd went to 49 per cent and Mr Rudd’s rose three points to 35 per cent.”

    Well, Dennis, you might have written: “Rudd rates bounce in poll!” or “PM lead on economic management slashed!”, “PM’s lead plummets from 19 to 14 in one week!”

    That’s the sort of piffle you’ve been writing about 2PP figures as they fluctuate around a steady mean…..

  14. […] difference, but bigger spend. This is dangerous territory for a Coalition not benefitting from any discernible movement in its direction in the polls over the course of the campaign. It’s highly likely that far from blowing Rudd “out of the water”, as Coalition […]

  15. mbahnisch says:

    Update [by MB]: Possum has a neat graph showing the glacial narrowing will deliver teh victory to the Coalition sometime in July next year.

  16. Enemy Combatant says:

    Said Leinad @2: “set against a rock solid Labor primary of 48% and a haemorraging Coalition primary of 40%. Congrats, Mark on having the foresight to call this way back when…”

    Mark, help me out here, apart from an ALP landslide, didn’t you also suggest two other possible election results “way back when”?

  17. mbahnisch says:

    Can’t recall, EC, what are you thinking of? Back in April, I wrote a piece for OLO which suggested that it was likely that the 10 percent odd lead that Rudd had was probably frozen in stone. I suggested that politics was a dynamic game, and previewed several things that might have eroded it (remember the budget bounce, anyone?) but my feeling was that it would probably carry through until the election.

  18. Enemy Combatant says:

    Mark, it was a couple of months back here, when you suggested that it would be a big ALP swing OR a very narrow win to either. Wouldn’t put my house on it but I’m fairly certain.
    Politics is a dynamic game all right. And how sweet it is that the local boy made good from Eumundi is bound for glory, and the reign of El Rodente is nigh.

  19. mbahnisch says:

    Probably, EC. There is a “narrowing” in a sense in that the range of possible scenarios becomes much clearer and less variable the closer we get to the “poll that counts”.

  20. kimberella says:

    However, Finance Minister Nick Minchin said the Government’s spending promises would be “modest and conservative”.

    9 billion bucks?

  21. mick says:

    That’s around $450 for every person in Oz.

    Nice to see that they are concerned about putting the brakes on inflation.

  22. […] contrast to see Brisbane’s Liberal Lord Mayor, Campbell Newman, as the host for the show. If the “narrowing” never arrives, Newman will of course be the senior Liberal politician in the land on the 25th of […]

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