Queensland Senate race

Balance the SenateThe Poll Bludger has a very comprehensive post on the Queensland Senate contest, complete with graphs and profiles of all the candidates who stand a chance. Although Quinceland looks set to do its bit towards restoring balance in the Senate, unfortunately TPB doesn’t think the omens for Andrew Bartlett are very good. He does agree with Mark that Pauline is a no show.

Various schisms among the right should scatter the micro party vote, preventing any chance of an upset. That includes Pauline Hanson, who has no chance of success despite reports she has been “boosted” by Family First and Climate Change Coalition preferences. The real significance of Hanson is that her preferences will, eventually, end up with Labor’s third candidate ahead of the Greens and Ron Boswell. The remaining preferences will split in an orderly fashion: religious, populist and recreation parties will go to the Coalition, while the Democrats, Climate Change Coalition, Socialist Alliance and What Women Want (along with the Carers Alliance) will go to the Greens. Once those three blocs are added together, it will be a question of which out of Labor, the Coalition and the Greens misses out on one of the final two seats.

Posted in federal election '07
5 comments on “Queensland Senate race
  1. Enemy Combatant says:

    The sting in Pauline’s preferences indicates that she hasn’t forgotten how Ronnie “The Brave” Boswell and The Mad Monk, both neatly compartmentalizing their espoused “Christian Charity” in order to spite a populist threat, initiated proceedings that made certain Ms Hanson underwent a stretch at Betty Windsor’s pleasure in a Queensland jail. Barring an extraordinary upset, Hanson won’t get enough preferences to be elected but her presence on the ticket spells the end of Ronnie who was was thick enough to cop third place on the Coalition ticket without full regard to the consequences of his terminally stupid move.

    The Bludger sez…”The real significance of Hanson is that her preferences will, eventually, end up with Labor’s third candidate ahead of the Greens and Ron Boswell.”

    The Bludger concludes…”Once those three blocs are added together, it will be a question of which out of Labor, the Coalition and the Greens misses out on one of the final two seats.”

    So in Qld, Ronnie is dead Senate meat, Greens will get a gong along with 3 ALP and 2 Lib, imho. With Mr. X looking good in SA, the Coalition/Fielding balance of power block will end next June and the dismantling of SerfChoices with all its attendant bastardry can begin. As can a Senate Inquiry into the recent abuses of power and colossal waste of our money by ASIO and the AFP in persecuting innocent people for political advantage under the draconian anti-terrorism laws of Ruddock and Minchin and Team Rodent’s Downunder Neoconservative zealots.

    A more measured approach than the infamous Lionel Murphy ASIO raid would be wise, but under the present anti-terror statutes innocent Australian citizens and visitors are “Hey, Presto!” Gulag fodder. The legislation requires radical alteration.

  2. philiptravers says:

    If you are right,and I bet Andrew Bartlett ,will be doing his best to prove you are wrong, then your analysis will be in vain.I didnt sleep much last night,and I just heard how many world leaders want the Pakistani Musharraf to call elections immediately..it all looks like Saddam Hussein again ,and I always thought the Pakistani man Musharraf wasnt that bad as a human himself.He obviously has to do something.So not that there is little to compare the two named ,I actually think you are wrong,that it is the Greens that have a problem,because of Senator Bartletts history where it seems some are mimicking him with… similar directions.And he aint that old and a parent,and has still got some days left to show how worthy he is,because he has been at the front of dealing with liberal Party failures.He must not let himself be world-weary tired..but make John Howard feel it.again,and again.

  3. Poll Bludger does some good stuff, but the assessment of the Qld Senate contest neglects to mention that Hanson preferences flow to the Democrats before they go to Labor.

    The Morgan Senate poll which just came out today shows the Democrats and Hanson both polling 5.5%, and Family First on 2.5% and Greens on 6.5%. These are all fairly consistent with trends in their Senate polls all year.

    The Poll Bludger also neglects the chances of Family First. Even if they only poll 3 or 4 per cent, they get a lot of preferences from tiny right wing parties, and are a good chance if they can get ahead of Hanson.

    Whilst Senate polls are not as reliable, they have been fairly in most respects this year, and the figures are not particularly implausible. If today’s Morgan poll wre translated to election day, the final two seats would depend on how the 2.5% shown as going to Others was spread amongst the 17 other groups.

    Possible outcomes include:
    3 Labor/3 Coalition;
    3 Labor/2 Coalition/1 Democrat or Green;
    2 Labor/2 Coalition/1 Family First/1 Green;
    3 Labor/2 Coalition/1 Democrat or Green

  4. Arty says:

    At leaset John Howard has declared he will remain in Parliament and not show his arrogance by resigning when he ceases to be PM.

    A similar commitment by the Senate candidates will be welcome.

    “Do you intend to serve out your full term?”

    Do any of them have plans in place to pull the pin and hand the seat to an unknown so the new kid can enjoy the perks of office without the inconvenience of being elected?

    In Queensland, the public can usually name at least 4 of the 12 Senators – do they keep them low profile so they can be swapped to suit the party machine.

  5. For the record, I’ve amended this entry to discuss the real possibility of Family First winning a seat, which I’d dismissed at the time. I hope I’m wrong about Andrew Bartlett, but I expect him to be excluded before Pauline Hanson’s preferences are distributed.

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