The Poll Bludger has a very comprehensive post on the Queensland Senate contest, complete with graphs and profiles of all the candidates who stand a chance. Although Quinceland looks set to do its bit towards restoring balance in the Senate, unfortunately TPB doesn’t think the omens for Andrew Bartlett are very good. He does agree with Mark that Pauline is a no show.
Various schisms among the right should scatter the micro party vote, preventing any chance of an upset. That includes Pauline Hanson, who has no chance of success despite reports she has been “boosted” by Family First and Climate Change Coalition preferences. The real significance of Hanson is that her preferences will, eventually, end up with Labor’s third candidate ahead of the Greens and Ron Boswell. The remaining preferences will split in an orderly fashion: religious, populist and recreation parties will go to the Coalition, while the Democrats, Climate Change Coalition, Socialist Alliance and What Women Want (along with the Carers Alliance) will go to the Greens. Once those three blocs are added together, it will be a question of which out of Labor, the Coalition and the Greens misses out on one of the final two seats.