If you’re still wondering what all the plethora of polls released in the last few days mean, you need to read Possum’s latest update on his Pollytrend:
What we’ve seen over the last 20 days is the ALP vote continuing to increase from the trough Rudd had it in before he was replaced. We also see the Greens getting a few points of growth and the Coalition slightly edging back. The big losers have been the broad “Others” with their vote nearly halving in the lead up to the election campaign and over its first few days.
On the two party preferred and its implications:
Over the last 20 days, the ALP two party preferred has increased by 1.5 points on the phone pollster trend and 1.8 points on the all pollster trend. Regardless of which measure you use, the trend is positive for the ALP by over a point – so the incumbent government, at this stage, is slowly pulling away from the opposition.
If we plug those phone poll trend estimate numbers into Antony’s spiffy election calculator, we end up with Labor on 83 seats, the Coalition on 64 seats and 3 independents. You might notice that the current estimate is exactly what the current Parliament is – but because of the electoral boundary redistribution, that actually makes the ALP in a position of being 5 or 6 seats behind their 2007 performance (since they notionally gained 5 or 6 seats in that redistribution).
So they ALP is currently ahead of the Coalition – but are behind their 2007 election result both in terms of their current two party preferred result and their net seat position. However, their vote is trending up and has been for around 50 days now, starting at the back end of the Rudd leadership and continuing through the Gillard leadership to today.
Read the whole post here.